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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."